What's coming,and how surewe are

By 31 Dec 2031, at least one drug from this set fixed on 28 Jul 2026 wins an FDA approval specific to compensated F4 MASH cirrhosis: - Efruxifermin (FGF21, Novo Nordisk via Akero) — SYNCHRONY Outcomes NCT06528314, primary completion Feb-2030. - Resmetirom (THR-β, Madrigal) — MAESTRO-NASH-OUTCOMES NCT05500222, primary completion Dec-2026 est. - Pegozafermin (FGF21, 89bio/Roche) — F4 program. Resolves YES if at least one named drug has that FDA indication at the cutoff; NO otherwise, including if FDA requires hard outcomes rather than histology. No drug may be added after the call.

On or before 31 Dec 2030, TUNE-401 (NCT06671093) reports in a controlled trial that at least 25% of the evaluable HBV cohort achieves confirmed HBsAg loss below assay quantification and sustains it for at least six months off therapy. Resolves YES only if every condition holds; NO on a lower response, non-durability, program termination, or no qualifying controlled readout by the deadline. No other asset can be substituted.

One of three registered hard-MACE outcomes trials — pelacarsen HORIZON (NCT04023552), olpasiran OCEAN(a) (NCT05581303), or lepodisiran ACCLAIM-Lp(a) (NCT06292013) — hits its primary MACE endpoint with statistical significance and that same therapy gains approval for cardiovascular risk reduction by 31 Dec 2030. Resolves YES only if both legs hold for one named therapy; NO otherwise.

On or before 31 Dec 2030, rentosertib (INS018055) reports a statistically significant positive result on the pre-specified primary endpoint in its registrational Phase 3. A China-only NMPA registrational readout counts. Resolves YES only on a qualifying positive topline or publication; NO on an endpoint miss, termination, or absence of a qualifying readout by the deadline. No other asset can be substituted after the call.

On or before 31 Dec 2030, zosurabalpin reports a positive pivotal Phase 3 against carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii, meeting its pre-specified primary mortality or clinical-cure endpoint at non-inferiority-or-better versus standard of care. Resolves YES only on that qualifying result; NO on non-initiation, enrolment failure, endpoint miss, safety halt, deprioritisation, or no qualifying readout by the deadline. No other antibiotic can be substituted.

At 31 Dec 2029, at least 33% of US AI data-center capacity that was publicly announced for energisation in 2026–2029 has either been cancelled or missed its original energisation date by more than 12 months, and contemporaneous developer/utility filings attribute the primary cause for a majority of that delayed capacity to transformers, switchgear or interconnection rather than chip supply. Resolves YES only if both legs hold; NO otherwise. The announced-capacity denominator and each project's original date are frozen from public records available by 31 Dec 2026; later announcements cannot dilute the denominator.

In each calendar year 2026, 2027, and 2028, the sum of US solar-PV generator net-summer MW additions and battery-storage net-summer MW additions exceeds natural-gas generator net-summer MW additions in EIA's final generator inventory. Battery MW is explicitly a power-capacity deployment measure, not electricity generation, and co-located solar and battery units are counted separately by technology as EIA records them. Resolves YES only if all three annual comparisons hold; NO on the first year gas is equal to or greater than the solar-plus-battery sum. Final adjudication occurs by 31 Mar 2029. Turbine backlog, energy supplied, and LCOE are mechanisms only.

At 23:59 UTC on 31 Dec 2029, the public CelesTrak satellite catalogue contains fewer than 648 Qianfan/Thousand Sails payloads with an Earth-orbiting status. Launch failures, objects never catalogued as payloads, and spacecraft recorded as decayed before the cutoff do not count. Resolves YES at 647 or fewer; NO at 648 or more. “Operational” service status, Guowang, launcher type, and any ITU waiver are context only because no authoritative public operational-status registry was demonstrated.

For each calendar year 2026 through 2030, the year-over-year increase in China's NEA-reported total installed electricity-generation nameplate capacity is at least 3.0x the boundary-matched US increase computed from EIA final utility-scale net-summer capacity plus EIA's estimated small-scale solar capacity. Both sides include additions net of retirements; storage is excluded from both numerators because it is not generation. Resolves YES only if every annual ratio is at least 3.0x; NO on the first ratio below 3.0x. If either agency changes a boundary, the prior-year series must be restated on the new basis or the affected year is disputed rather than silently compared. Final adjudication occurs no later than 31 Mar 2031.

By 31 Dec 2031, a public GAO or OMB assessment reports both that more than 50% of the high-value assets and high-impact federal systems in its stated reporting denominator failed to complete ML-KEM key-establishment migration by 31 Dec 2030, and that incomplete cryptographic inventory/discovery or un-updatable legacy/embedded cryptography was the primary cause across the non-compliant set. Resolves YES only if both legs appear in a public assessment; NO if either leg fails or no qualifying assessment is published by the deadline. Systems outside EO 14412's HVA/high-impact scope and contractors are excluded unless the assessment explicitly includes them in a separately reported denominator.

At 31 Dec 2030, aggregate new US advanced-reactor capacity continuously supplying a commercial data-center load is below 1.0 GW. Conventional reactor restarts, test criticality, demonstration output and capacity contracted but not operating do not count. Resolves YES at 0.999 GW or less; NO at 1.000 GW or more.

By 31 Dec 2028, China has commissioned at least 20.0 GWh cumulative of grid-scale stationary storage whose installed cell chemistry is sodium-ion. Announced orders, factory capacity and projects converted to LFP do not count. Resolves YES at 20.0 GWh or above; NO below 20.0 GWh using CNESA project-level deployment records, cross-checked against vendor disclosures. Lithium price affects the edge narrative but is not an outcome condition.

The benchmark 30-year Japanese government bond yield records an official closing level strictly above 4.50% on at least one trading day on or before 31 Dec 2030. Resolves YES on the first qualifying close; NO if no qualifying close exists by the deadline. Debt-service ratios, BOJ policy and buyer composition are mechanism indicators only and cannot resolve the claim.

The published TradeTech or UxC Western SWU spot assessment is at least $100/SWU on 31 Dec 2031. Resolves YES at $100 or above; NO below $100. Russian waivers, enricher utilisation and reactor demand are explanatory mechanisms, not alternative resolution legs.

On or before 31 Dec 2028, at least one CoreWeave-only event occurs: (a) a bankruptcy filing, missed payment, distressed exchange, or court/creditor restructuring; or (b) S&P's issuer credit rating falls by at least two notches from the 9 Apr 2026 B+ baseline to B− or lower. Resolves YES on the first qualifying event; NO if neither occurs by the deadline. No other issuer can be added after the call. Market spreads remain diagnostic but cannot resolve the forecast because no complete public CoreWeave CDS history was demonstrated at review.