Japan’s widowmaker finally pays
Japan has enormous debt and has paid almost nothing to borrow for decades. That is starting to change.
57%likely
Well sourced
Next check
Watching
Why it is different
Betting against a trade that has ruined people for thirty years. The claim is that this time the buyer of last resort is stepping back.
Why it matters
Japanese money is invested all over the world. If it comes home, borrowing costs rise everywhere.
Next check · 15 Sep 2026
Does Japan’s finance ministry ask for 35 trillion yen or more to service its debt next year? (Last year’s request: 32.4 trillion.)
How we scored it ·
a judgement call
If right, how big5/5How overlooked4/5Upside vs downside4/5Source trust4/5Independent sources5/5
The exact wording we score
Japan’s 30-year JGB yield breaks above 4.5% before end-2030 (from ~3.85% today) as fiscal-dominance dynamics overwhelm the consensus.