Sodium batteries scale anyway
A battery that uses sodium instead of lithium: cheaper materials, worse performance. China is building them whether or not the maths favours it.
50%likely
Well sourced
Next check
Watching
Why it is different
The bet is that China builds them for supply-security reasons even while lithium is cheap, against the cost logic Western analysts rely on.
Why it matters
It would cut grid storage loose from lithium supply, which is a strategic weak point for everyone else.
Next check · 31 Oct 2026
Does CATL’s Q3-2026 disclosure confirm that commercial sodium-ion grid-battery deliveries actually began in September 2026 as guided?
How we scored it ·
a judgement call
If right, how big3/5How overlooked4/5Upside vs downside2/5Source trust5/5Independent sources4/5
The exact wording we score
China deploys sodium-ion stationary storage at multi-GWh scale (>20 GWh cumulative by end-2028) despite low lithium prices.