Washington misses its encryption deadline
The US government has ordered agencies to replace encryption that a future quantum computer could break. This bets they miss the deadline, because nobody knows where all their encryption actually is.
50%likely
Well sourced
Next check
Watching
Why it is different
The insight is the reason. The new maths is ready; the map of what needs replacing is not.
Why it matters
Data stolen today can be unlocked later. The migration is the only thing standing in the way.
Next check · 30 Sep 2026
Does the White House budget office issue the required post-quantum guidance on or before 30 Sep 2026, as the executive order’s 90-day clock demands?
How we scored it ·
from how often this kind of thing happens
If right, how big4/5How overlooked4/5Upside vs downside2/5Source trust4/5Independent sources4/5
The exact wording we score
The US federal post-quantum cryptography mandate is substantially missed, with the gating failure being cryptographic asset discovery, not the algorithms.