Small reactors arrive too late
Tech companies keep announcing nuclear deals for their data centres. This bets almost none of it is switched on this decade.
80%likely
Well sourced
Next check
Watching
Why it is different
Not whether small reactors work, but whether any meaningful amount is actually generating power for data centres before 2030.
Why it matters
If the nuclear answer lands in the 2030s, the power problem has to be solved some other way first.
Next check · 31 Dec 2026
After the August 2026 hearing, does the regulator issue the construction permit for TVA’s Clinch River reactor by 31 Dec 2026?
How we scored it ·
from how similar cases went
If right, how big3/5How overlooked4/5Upside vs downside2/5Source trust4/5Independent sources4/5
The exact wording we score
Next-gen nuclear supplies less than ~1 GW of aggregate operating power to US AI data centers before end-2030. Largely narrative on the relevant horizon.