Gas cannot be the bridge
Everyone assumes new gas plants will power the AI boom. You currently cannot buy a gas turbine until 2031.
75%likely
Well sourced
Next check
Watching
Why it is different
Turbines are physically sold out, so solar plus batteries wins the buildout by default. That is a supply fact, not a policy preference.
Why it matters
It decides what the US grid is actually built out of for the rest of this decade.
Next check · 31 Jan 2027
Does GE Vernova report a gas-turbine order book of 125 GW or more at the end of 2026, with factory capacity still around 20 GW a year?
How we scored it ·
from how often this kind of thing happens
If right, how big4/5How overlooked3/5Upside vs downside3/5Source trust4/5Independent sources4/5
The exact wording we score
Solar-plus-storage, not gas, supplies the majority of US net new grid capacity through 2028, because gas turbines are physically sold out.